Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 21.815468 23.716092 25.768976 28.161929 30.888423 33.914607 37.550358
2025-11-09 18.811862 21.409571 24.411979 28.181477 32.849687 38.526669 46.090017
2025-11-16 16.664965 19.627713 23.233598 28.035618 34.408093 42.799596 55.099744
2025-11-23 15.080297 18.245182 22.258827 27.869150 35.765917 46.927274 64.821005
2025-11-30 13.843387 17.117515 21.412273 27.665586 36.929494 50.886601 75.247400
2025-12-07 12.913625 16.270438 20.805083 27.652150 38.282200 55.296871 87.613790
2025-12-14 12.101375 15.490258 20.184263 27.499164 39.338743 59.372785 100.649470
2025-12-21 11.716525 15.255896 20.293789 28.424398 42.222998 67.149354 123.944189
2025-12-28 11.069016 14.587597 19.694027 28.146994 43.005488 71.222681 140.939164
2026-01-04 10.560031 14.078223 19.280397 28.107934 44.177178 76.296409 162.854997
2026-01-11 10.180892 13.730082 19.077690 28.384451 45.954076 83.051585 193.311376
2026-01-18 9.732326 13.245111 18.617513 28.159697 46.719195 87.759078 220.797334
2026-01-25 9.304438 12.775678 18.162882 27.926552 47.496761 92.889304 254.604492
2026-02-01 8.950343 12.400315 17.834881 27.891183 48.692410 99.482400 300.910489
2026-02-08 8.601687 12.012681 17.457794 27.724411 49.583007 105.602375 352.926549
2026-02-15 8.280920 11.650807 17.097587 27.550861 50.431845 111.932796 415.672851
2026-02-22 7.980660 11.305233 16.740852 27.346531 51.177847 118.266465 490.323154
2026-03-01 7.734223 11.033744 16.493173 27.331573 52.375136 126.532315 597.556930
2026-03-08 7.484378 10.743598 16.193318 27.180394 53.214391 133.997348 721.419043
2026-03-15 7.409583 10.739104 16.398582 28.089782 56.936768 153.696667 1056.997056
2026-03-22 7.169855 10.445040 16.061293 27.816920 57.475807 161.460158 1299.179683
2026-03-29 6.977627 10.222773 15.842051 27.778459 58.662651 172.659758 1701.334263
2026-04-05 6.837888 10.083592 15.767525 28.050285 60.793353 189.483254 2478.897458